Oscars 2022: Predictions and Pre-Show Thoughts

    The Oscars are on Sunday, so now is the time to give my predictions on what will win. In order to give a thorough assessment, I have watched all the films nominated in every category. This is not something I would advise and do not plan on doing again. Anyway, I’ve based my assessment on a number of factors, including the critics, audiences, and especially what has won awards at other events. I also had some friends help too. 

 

    I’ll start with the technical nominations. Despite the Academy’s decision to cut them presumably due to lack of interest, I want to give these the attention they deserve. It’s partially due the fact that these are the fields I may end up working in, but also it allows me to focus on specific aspects of films that I find interesting. First off, my big pick of the technical nominations, both in terms of predictions and personal taste, is Dune. Aside from being one of the most legitimately epic films I’ve seen in a theater in recent memory, it is an astoundingly beautiful and deeply atmospheric film. I expect it to sweep several of these nominations. 

 

    The cinematography nominations were particularly powerful this year. Dune’s desert landscapes brought to mind an earlier era of big-screen cinema epics, while also featuring hallucinatory visions and epic battle sequences. The Power of the Dog also earned its nomination for its beautiful depictions of rural environments and wide vistas. However, one of my favorite uses of cinematography this year came from Spielberg’s adaptation West Side Story. The film uses gritty, often handheld cinematography that not only helps with the tone but also adds to the film’s character. It was cinematography that I could really feel, and the animated camerawork certainly helped when used with the musical numbers.

 

The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

    The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley are also nominated for Cinematography, but my thoughts on those have more to do with production design. Quite notably, the nominations are exactly the same for both categories. Joel Coen’s Macbeth adaptation was a throwback to the likes of Kurosawa’s Throne of Blood, with black-and-white cinematography that often made great use of high-contrast filming. This was an incredible film to look at. Of particular mention were the witches, whose interpretation in this film absolutely stunned me and added to the trio’s unsettling mystique. Nightmare Alley was also a throwback, though in a different sense. The muted and/or limited color scheme and heavy use of sepia gave it the feel of something out of the early-to-mid 20th century when it took place. There was an unreality to it that added to the film’s premise. In both cases, the cinematography and production design complemented each other. Dune also scores high in production design, particularly with its use of ink-black environments. I’d say Dune is my pick for both cinematography and production design, though with the latter, it could also go to Nightmare Alley. Dune is also my pick for visual effects. In contrast to some of the other nominees, including Free Guy and two Marvel movies, Dune’s effects were sparer, but far more heavy on spectacle, and it worked. The scenes with the sandworms were among some of the most stunning I’d seen in theaters all year. 

 

    The biggest locks for Dune are the awards for Sound and Best Original Score. This is a score you don’t just hear, but feel. (I have the film playing on my TV as I’m writing this, and even now some of the music sends chills up my spine. Listening to it in a theater is something else entirely.) For editing, Dune is also a contender, and might possibly win, but I also want to give attention to one of the other nominees, Tick, Tick…Boom! Lin-Manuel Miranda’s film did a great job combining the adaptation of Jonathan Larson’s show with a dramatization of the show itself, while also using frequent stylization techniques (including a period-era rap music video and an elaborate number set during Sunday brunch), helping to bring us into Larson’s mind. Don’t Look Up’s editing, which made heavy use of montages, found footage, and often jarring cuts, was often heavy-handed but still seemed to accomplish what it was going for, for the most part. For Best Original Song, Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell are likely to win for their theme to last year’s James Bond film No Time to Die.

 

Cruella

 

    The nominees for Costumes and Makeup/Hairstyling are, by their nature, some of the most visually pleasing and impressive of the films nominated, but usually with not much else. For costumes there were two types of fashion: lavish or period-impressive, and overtly stylistic. For instance, Cyrano got nominated for lavish outfits overall, while Cruella got nominated with both its depiction of lavish fashion and its punk-rock aesthetic for the titular character. Cruella is my prediction for costumes. (By the way, Cruella was a bizarre watch. It felt like Disney’s safe, family-oriented version of an edgy cult appeal film.) For makeup, all the nominations were deserving, but two films in particular got buzz for makeup alone: House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Jared Leto got attention for his transformation into Paolo Gucci, while Jessica Chastain’s Tammy Faye Bakker required so much makeup that the actress claims it caused permanent skin damage. I predict The Eyes of Tammy Faye will get the makeup award. For short films, my prediction is Bestia. If I’m correct, it will be notable in that it will be one of the few times a horror film has won an Oscar. For live-action, my pick is Ala Kachuu - Take and Run. For Best Documentary Short, I predict Three Songs for Benazir.

 

    One of the tightest races this year is the Best Documentary Feature race. My current pick is Summer of Soul, easily one of the best films of the year, period. Its competition, however, is Flee, which has been racking up awards and could easily beat it. While Flee is also nominated for the Best International and Animated Feature awards, I don’t see it winning either. My prediction for Best International Feature is Drive My Car, which definitely deserves it. For Best Animated Feature, my prediction is The Mitchells vs. the Machines, a heartfelt, inventive, and extremely funny film that takes full advantage of the animated medium, if not pushing the medium entirely.

 

    For original screenplay, my preferred pick would be The Worst Person in the World, but chances of that winning are low. Based on the competition (which inexplicably contains Don’t Look Up), I’d say Licorice Pizza has a far better chance. For the Best Adapted Screenplay award, many of the nominees have their own strengths, from CODA casting actual deaf actors where the film it’s based on didn’t, to Drive My Car turning a short story into a three-hour movie without going too far. I’d say The Power of the Dog is a likely win, though Drive My Car is a contender as well.

 

    Now onto the actors. For Best Supporting Actor, my favorites this year included Troy Kotsur in CODA. The first deaf actor to be nominated, Kotsur gave a performance that was equal parts funny and heartwarming. The Power of the Dog actually has two nominations, but the one I felt was stronger was Kodi Smit-McPhee as Peter Gordon, who is also my prediction for the winner. For Best Supporting Actress, my pick is Ariana Debose’s performance as Anita in West Side Story. For actor in a leading role, my top pick is Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog. A stunning depiction of masculinity (and its fragility), Cumberbatch plays the part with a subtlety that gave me such an imposing feeling of power that I got a sense of dread every time he appeared on screen. 

 

    As I said in my last blog, I felt that Jessica Chastain shined as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, which I felt was one of 2021’s most underrated films. She is certainly a contender for the award for Best Actress in a Leading Role. However, she is not my pick. My prediction for the award, by a wide margin, is Kristen Stewart’s gut-wrenching performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Stewart took what could’ve been a standard period drama and turned it into a psychological horror film, giving a performance that got under my skin so much that it rendered the film often hard to watch. For me, what takes a performance to the next level isn’t just believing the actors are the characters, but when you feel the characters as well. It didn’t matter if I knew Diana was Stewart, what I was feeling came from the character, not just the actor. I really hope she wins.

 

My prediction for Best Director is Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. Campion is the first woman to be nominated twice for Best Director, and boy, did she earn the nomination this year. I will point out, however, that I loved Steven Spielberg’s direction on West Side Story, a film that I did not in any way predict would succeed, but succeed it did. The Power of the Dog is also my prediction for Best Picture. This was indeed among my favorite films of 2021 and definitely deserves the award. If you haven’t seen the film by now, I predict that now’s the time. It’s been racking up a mountain awards and I expect it to get more at the Oscars. Now, we just have to see who wins. I’ll try to give my report on the ceremony after it airs.

 

 

Oscars 2022: Hidden Gold Part 2

 

Flee

 

Following on my last blog, here are some of the Oscar nominated feature films you may have otherwise missed. As of this writing many of them are on demand or on streaming, and the ones that aren't should be soon. As is usually the case, many of these are among the year’s best in general and could easily compete with the likes of the Best Picture nominees. However, not only did a few of them manage to beat the odds and secure major nominations, but one of them actually did get nominated for Best Picture, which is all the more reason to see it. Now, I’d normally start with the International and Documentary nominations, but given the number of nominations some of these films have received, I’ve decided to spotlight them first.

The first film I’d like to bring up is Japan’s Best International Feature entry Drive My Car, which is not only nominated for Best International Feature Film, but also Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and even Best Picture, and I definitely think it deserves all those nominations and even possible wins. Don’t be intimidated by the film’s massive runtime. This is one of the best films of the year by far. A wrenching meditation on regret, the film follows stage actor and director Yusuke Kafuku, who attempts to direct a multilingual production of Uncle Vanya two years after his wife’s unexpected death. While he can drive, he is required to have a chauffeur, and so his car is driven by Misaki Watari. Due to the extended length of the film and where the story goes, I won’t reveal too much. This was an incredible work that in my opinion lived up to all the acclaim it had received. It’s very rare that a film can have scenes that run for more than ten minutes on end and still keep me captivated. You should definitely check this one out before the winners are announced, as it is a massive contender. 

 

I first saw Flee during its virtual Sundance premiere and spent the next year talking about it to everyone I knew and who would listen. Now, it’s made Oscar history by being nominated for Best Documentary, Best International, and Best Animated Feature all at the same time, and it deserves every nomination. It is an animated documentary about Amin, an Afghan refugee, as he shares his story. However, he prefers to keep his identity a secret. In order to address that, almost the entire movie is told though animation.  A wrenching and inspiring testament to the power of perseverance, and a reminder of what animation can accomplish, this was one of my absolute favorite things of this year. I’d predict it for a win, but I can’t because the competition is just too equally strong in all three categories to guarantee. However, I’ll save that for next week’s blog.

 

The Worst Person in the World

In The Worst Person in the World, Julie is wandering through potential life paths in Oslo when she meets Aksel, an older acclaimed comic artist. The two begin a relationship, but Julie is unsure of starting a family with him. When she meets Eivind, who is in a relationship of his own, her question of what to do with her life becomes even more complicated. I’ll leave the premise at that. This film gave me the biggest laughs I’ve had at the movies recently while still managing to touch my heart. Some of the best material in the movie comes from the film’s more satirical elements, including an ongoing thread about how transgressive art is treated in today’s world. In addition, the movie is narratively playful, using an offbeat chapter-driven structure and occasionally mixing omniscient third-party narration. There are also some impressive setpieces, including a run through the streets of Oslo, frozen in time, and one sequence mixing in heavy practical effects and animation. In addition to receiving a nomination for Best International Feature Film, it is also deservedly nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

I saw Parallel Mothers as such an awards season juggernaut, and certainly a contender for the Best International Oscar, that I failed to even notice it wasn’t submitted for the awards in the first place. Nevertheless, it managed to still succeed in getting not one, but two nominations. The new movie by Pedro Almodóvar, the film is about Janis, a photographer who is working to excavate a mass grave containing her great-grandfather’s remains and ends up sleeping with Arturo, the man responsible for the excavation. Months later, she gives birth at the same time as Ana, a teen mother, and both raise their children as single mothers. To say more would be criminal, and the plot goes in several directions I did not expect in the slightest. What starts out as a seemingly innocent drama about motherhood becomes something darker and more poignant. Penelope Cruz is nominated for Best Actress in a Leading Role for her performance as Janis, and I felt it was deserved, as was the nomination for Best Original Score.

 

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Now, I’d like to bring up the remainder of the specialty nominations. First, here are two other films nominated for Best International Feature. Every year, films get nominated that I initially miss under the assumption that the Academy will ignore them. Many of these end up being pleasant surprises. This year, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan’s International Oscar entry, beat several odds to get made. Shot on cameras charged with solar lamps on a shoestring budget, with the director unable to even review footage, in a village without electricity, and with nonprofessional actors who had never even seen a movie, the resulting film is something truly special. Ugyen is tired of his government mandated training to be a teacher, wishing to move to Australia to be a singer. When he’s assigned to the most remote school on the planet, he reluctantly heads from his life in Bhutan’s capital to the mountain village of Lunana (which requires an eight-day hike just to get to). Ugyen soon warms up to the idea of teaching the children of Lunana, finding inventive ways to educate them with limited means. Sweet and funny, this one was a pleasant surprise and I’m glad it got nominated. The characters are likable, the performances are great, and it carries a powerful message. One of the reasons I love cinema is to witness new perspectives I might not otherwise, and this was a great example of that. Oscar-winner Paolo Sorrentino returns to the Oscars with The Hand of God, a film based on his own youth and the sports event that literally changed (and saved) his life. Fabietto (Filippo Scotti, in an excellent breakout role) lives in Naples with his parents in the 1980s. However, a sudden family tragedy forces Fabietto into the start of his coming of age. I enjoyed this movie a lot and thought it was very funny and heartfelt. However, I don’t see this winning against the competition. It was a good movie, but not great.

 

Summer of Soul (or...When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Now, here are the other Best Documentary Feature films. In 1971, Woodstock won the Oscar for Best Documentary. This year, one of the biggest contenders examines a similar event from the same summer, and with similar attendance 100 miles away, that time unfortunately forgot. Summer of Soul (or…When the Revolution Could Not be Televised) is Questlove’s chronicle of the 1969 Harlem Culture Festival. Held in Mount Morris Park in Harlem over four weeks, it presented a wide range of black performers to an audience of nearly 300,000. The whole thing was filmed but sat shelved for over 50 years. If Questlove had merely presented the raw footage as is a la Amazing Grace, this would’ve been a great concert film. Instead, he went further and made one of the best films of this year, documentary or otherwise. Questlove deftly combines the performances with other footage of the period and new interviews, both with those who were there and those who came later (including fellow Oscar nominee Lin-Manuel Miranda, who delivers a lesson on Spanish Harlem with his father) to paint a powerful portrait of a period of immense social change. However, the real draw here is the music. This wasn’t referred to as the “Black Woodstock” for nothing, after all (including some intersection with that landmark festival). The shockingly well-preserved footage comprises a stunning lineup of African-American musical greats, including Stevie Wonder, Sly and the Family Stone, and an immensely powerful appearance by Nina Simone. Above all, the film carries a message of the power of representation, both live and onscreen. This is an absolute must-see movie and may end up taking home the Best Documentary Oscar.

 

 

Ascension

MTV returns to the Oscars with Ascension, a stunning and thought-provoking documentary dissection of the “Chinese Dream”. Told in three parts, this film goes from the bottom of the top of the social ladder, from factory workers to social media influencers to China’s leisure class. The promise of hard work leading to success, and the all-encompassing desire for consumption hovers over every frame. The film uses no narration and no interviews, with the only indication of a filmmaker’s point of view being through what is shown and how it is edited. The resulting material is breathtaking and sometimes harrowing, and may have you thinking about the world we live in as a whole. I will say that I typically don’t do well with impressionistic films like this, and this is definitely at the lower end of my predictions for the Best Documentary Oscar, but some of what I saw will definitely stay with me. I also have to mention Dan Deacon’s score for the film, which perfectly compliments the imagery onscreen.

 

Attica is Stanley Nelson’s chronicle of the infamous Attica prison riot, from the issues that led to it, to the long negotiation process, to the horrific conclusion. Featuring harrowing interviews from multiple sides and using a wealth of archival footage, the documentary is a scathing indictment of prisoner dehumanization and the consequences of pursuing law and order at any cost. Writing with Fire is a reminder of the power of journalism and a story of overcoming how others see you. The film follows reporters for India’s Khabar Lahariya. Initially the first newspaper in India to be started by Dalit women, the lowest members of India’s social structure, it has decided to evolve into YouTube journalism as well. The women of Khabar Lahariya brave many obstacles in their attempts to cover corruption and violence that others won’t address, eventually reporting against the backdrop of increased Hindu nationalism, while reflecting on the struggles they had to get through in their lives. An incredible story of journalistic perseverance that demonstrates the need for a free press.

 

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Finally, I wanted to cover a film that received a lackluster reception but that I really enjoyed. The Eyes of Tammy Faye is a film based on the documentary of the same name about televangelist Tammy Faye Baker. Now, I usually consider films based on documentaries redundant, especially since the best documentaries are the ones that would seem inconceivable as dramas. However, director Michael Showalter’s history in comedic works made me extremely interested in this film, and in my opinion, he did not disappoint. Showalter delivers a film that is simultaneously fittingly tongue in cheek while playing it as straight as possible. The movie avoids caricature, treating its subjects with respect. It would’ve been easy to paint controversial elements like Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson as villains, but instead they are given straightforward and non-condemning portrayals. (Although, nothing Showalter could’ve written would’ve been more over-the-top than some of what they’ve actually said in real life.) Jessica Chastain does an amazing job as Tammy, who is portrayed as someone who just wanted to use her faith to help people, even when her desire to help contradicted dogma. The performance earned Chastain a nomination for Best Lead Actress, and I’m so glad she received it. The film is also deservedly nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

 

Next week is the last week before the Oscars, and I’m going to give my predictions on all the categories.

Oscars 2022: Hidden Gold, Part 1

 

Please Hold

    The Academy Awards are soon, and so I’m giving my thoughts on the best films of last year (or 2020, and in one case, 2019) that the Academy loved but that you may not have seen. First on the list are the short films, often the most obscure of the films nominated. Of course, if recent news is any indication, the Academy doesn’t even seem to care about these films in general. It’s just as well then that I make them more visible.

     

    First off are the animated shorts, where anything is possible. Given the unfair stereotypes concerning animation as a medium for children, often the films featured tend to most stay in the mature but still age appropriate range, with the occasion R-rated entry. This year, however, was different, with a majority of the lineup being unsuitable for young audiences, and getting into pretty dark territory. My top pick for the animated shorts this year is Beast (Bestia), which is about Ingrid, who works for the Chilean secret police, and her relationship with her dog. Don’t be fooled by its innocent stop motion art style, which makes great use of porcelain dolls. This is a dark, violent, and occasionally perverse bit of filmmaking based on true historical events. This was a brutally unsettling work that I hope wins. The only other competition I think it has in Aardman’s Robin Robin (on Netflix), the musical story of a Robin who lives with a family of mice, and who just wants to belong with her sneaky brethren. The most family friendly short of a bunch, this endearing stop-motion piece is one of the most lighthearted shorts of the bunch. It also features great voice work, including turns by Richard E. Grant as a magpie who collects human objects, and Gillian Anderson as a terrifying cat. Russia’s Boxballet tells the story of a ballerina and a boxer who form an unexpected relationship, with the incoming fall of the Soviet Union in the backdrop. The film has a fast-paced and offbeat art style (some may be put off by it, but I’ve been a fan of unusually grotesque art), and while the premise may be simple, I did like the sly subversion of expectations. However, there doesn’t seem to be enough here to warrant a win. 

Beast (Bestia)

    A quick search of Affairs of the Art will tell you this is one of the more disliked shorts at the Oscars this year, and it’s not hard to see why. They’re also the same reasons that I loved watching it. This is probably one of the most deranged things I’ve seen the Academy nominate. Beryl describes her family’s passions while lamenting her own shortcomings in life as an artist, and calling her family’s interests “offbeat” is an understatement. (Animal lovers, be warned.) If you like your Oscar movies with a twisted sense of humor, seek this one out. The film also has an exaggerated and elaborate hand drawn art style, which I always appreciate. Finally, The Windshield Wiper asks “what is love” and attempts to answer it via a series of vignettes. This short certainly has things to say, but while films like this have never been my forte, I can also tell there wasn’t really much here in general. The only thing that really did stand out was the animation, and it was stunning. The CGI work combines styled cel-shaded art with photorealistic imagery in incredible ways.

Robin Robin

 

    Next are the live-action shorts. My top pick for the live-action shorts is Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, in which a young Kyrgyz girl hoping to better her life by studying in the capital is kidnapped and forced into marriage. An engaging and heartwrenching drama based on a serious topic, this is the one where I really felt the most for the characters involved. It deals with a number of issues, including whether one can truly escape their background, and the consequences of breaking free for the ones you leave behind. I also really liked Please Hold. A sci-fi satire set in an automated future, it centers on a delivery man who is suddenly arrested and must work his way through the automated Kafkaesque trial system in his corporate-owned prison (complete with a cute cartoon mascot named Scaley). This was easily the most terrifying short I’d seen of the five. It uses pitch-black comedy to address issues on the subjects of profiling, labor, and of course, our increasingly automated world. The ambiguity of the premise throughout adds an extra unsettling layer, and despite the film’s sense of humor and speculative setting, the film ends on a note reminding us that the consequences of the issues at play are both no joke and very real. Last year’s Live Action Short Oscar went to Two Distant Strangers, with used the time-loop sci-fi trope to address issues of police killings of unarmed African-Americans. Perhaps we may see a repeat of socially-relevant sci-fi taking home the gold. 

 

The Long Goodbye

    The Long Goodbye begins as a Muslim family in the UK go about their lives as a far-right protest unfolds on TV. Soon, it’s outside their doorstep, with tragic consequences. There isn’t much here, nor does there need to be. It’s a brutally simple look at why “it can’t happen here” is a dangerous way of thinking. However, the real highlight is Riz Ahmed (who earned his second Oscar nomination for his work on this short), who closes the short with a rap about his perspective on racism. On My Mind is a simple and sweet short about a man who is indignant about performing the Elvis Presley song "Always On My Mind" at a karaoke bar. The reason why I will leave for the viewer, but ultimately there’s not enough substance for me to see this one winning. The Dress involves a maid with dwarfism who finds hope in a truck driver who seems to take an interest in her. This was I thought was okay, though I found the ending to be unnecessarily downbeat. However, I would like to mention lead actor Anna Dzieduszycka, who does a great job.

 

    Finally, here are the documentary shorts. Audible (on Netflix) was one of my top picks of the five, and follows a football team at a school for the deaf. The film is told almost entirely in sign language with subtitles. Coming off of a crushing loss, coping with the suicide of a classmate, and with graduation around the corner, the student athletes put their struggles towards the game. It culminates in a deciding game against a hearing school. I found it an inspiring and engaging piece. Fittingly, my other pick also has to do with sports. The Queen of Basketball features Luisa Harris (who unfortunately passed away recently), one of the greatest living women’s basketball players, as as she recounts her history-making rise to stardom. Luisa makes a great subject as she reminisces how she beat multiple odds. 

The Windshield Wiper

    When We Were Bullies was an interesting one. Perhaps you, like me, had one of those teachers that was a fan of “group punishment”, where one kid’s misdemeanor impacted the entire class’s happiness. Jay Rosenblatt did in the early 1960s, and one particularly unpopular kid paid the price in act of schoolyard retaliation, with Jay getting involved. Years later, the impact is looked back upon in this personal and rough-edged short that makes good use of stop-motion animation. However, the subject isn’t the victim, but the perpetrators—including Jay himself. While the short has some good moments of humor and an extremely charming aesthetic, I don’t really know how to react to it. It should be noted that I went into this based on the reactions of people who have seen this short, and they hate it. The truth is, not only did I not hate this one, but it gave me a lot of self-reflection. I hated group punishment too, and I’m certainly not surprised things turned out the way they did. At the same time, hearing what the bullied kid was like, I saw a lot of myself in him. That could’ve easily been me. That second part also really hurt my opinion of the film because of the way it ends. I won’t say how, but wherever you’re hoping this documentary goes, it sadly doesn’t. I do want to root for the unknown filmmakers whose personal projects share nomination space with the likes of Netflix (who occupies 60 percent of this category this year), and I really wanted to like this short, but I couldn’t. 

When We Were Bullies

 

    Three Songs for Benazir is a miniature portrait of life in a camp for people displaced by war in Afghanistan, told through the eyes of one resident. Shaista lives with his wife Benazir, hoping to become the first person in his tribe to join the Afghan national army. However, as he is uneducated (only having a third-grade education due to having to flee after that), he must acquire signatures from a guardian or educated person in order to join. The alternative is a summer spent opium harvesting, where he believes that “death awaits.” The film does a great job of bringing us into Shaista’s life in just 22 minutes, delivering a fascinating story about when dreams face troubling realities, and the effects of one’s choices. I won’t say where this story ultimately leads, as this short currently on Netflix. Finally, Lead Me Home (on Netflix) is a multifaceted look at the homeless crisis in several West Coast cities. Both individual stories and interviews, as well as looks into local politics, illustrate both the issue and the lives of homeless people. While I don’t consider this one of my predictions for the winning short, I nonetheless found this to be an interesting approach to the subject. 

The Queen of Basketball

 

Next week, I'll go over the feature films nominated for Oscars this year that you may have otherwise missed.