The Oscars are on Sunday, so now is the time to give my predictions on what will win. In order to give a thorough assessment, I have watched all the films nominated in every category. This is not something I would advise and do not plan on doing again. Anyway, I’ve based my assessment on a number of factors, including the critics, audiences, and especially what has won awards at other events. I also had some friends help too.
I’ll start with the technical nominations. Despite the Academy’s decision to cut them presumably due to lack of interest, I want to give these the attention they deserve. It’s partially due the fact that these are the fields I may end up working in, but also it allows me to focus on specific aspects of films that I find interesting. First off, my big pick of the technical nominations, both in terms of predictions and personal taste, is Dune. Aside from being one of the most legitimately epic films I’ve seen in a theater in recent memory, it is an astoundingly beautiful and deeply atmospheric film. I expect it to sweep several of these nominations.
The cinematography nominations were particularly powerful this year. Dune’s desert landscapes brought to mind an earlier era of big-screen cinema epics, while also featuring hallucinatory visions and epic battle sequences. The Power of the Dog also earned its nomination for its beautiful depictions of rural environments and wide vistas. However, one of my favorite uses of cinematography this year came from Spielberg’s adaptation West Side Story. The film uses gritty, often handheld cinematography that not only helps with the tone but also adds to the film’s character. It was cinematography that I could really feel, and the animated camerawork certainly helped when used with the musical numbers.
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley are also nominated for Cinematography, but my thoughts on those have more to do with production design. Quite notably, the nominations are exactly the same for both categories. Joel Coen’s Macbeth adaptation was a throwback to the likes of Kurosawa’s Throne of Blood, with black-and-white cinematography that often made great use of high-contrast filming. This was an incredible film to look at. Of particular mention were the witches, whose interpretation in this film absolutely stunned me and added to the trio’s unsettling mystique. Nightmare Alley was also a throwback, though in a different sense. The muted and/or limited color scheme and heavy use of sepia gave it the feel of something out of the early-to-mid 20th century when it took place. There was an unreality to it that added to the film’s premise. In both cases, the cinematography and production design complemented each other. Dune also scores high in production design, particularly with its use of ink-black environments. I’d say Dune is my pick for both cinematography and production design, though with the latter, it could also go to Nightmare Alley. Dune is also my pick for visual effects. In contrast to some of the other nominees, including Free Guy and two Marvel movies, Dune’s effects were sparer, but far more heavy on spectacle, and it worked. The scenes with the sandworms were among some of the most stunning I’d seen in theaters all year.
The biggest locks for Dune are the awards for Sound and Best Original Score. This is a score you don’t just hear, but feel. (I have the film playing on my TV as I’m writing this, and even now some of the music sends chills up my spine. Listening to it in a theater is something else entirely.) For editing, Dune is also a contender, and might possibly win, but I also want to give attention to one of the other nominees, Tick, Tick…Boom! Lin-Manuel Miranda’s film did a great job combining the adaptation of Jonathan Larson’s show with a dramatization of the show itself, while also using frequent stylization techniques (including a period-era rap music video and an elaborate number set during Sunday brunch), helping to bring us into Larson’s mind. Don’t Look Up’s editing, which made heavy use of montages, found footage, and often jarring cuts, was often heavy-handed but still seemed to accomplish what it was going for, for the most part. For Best Original Song, Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell are likely to win for their theme to last year’s James Bond film No Time to Die.
Cruella
The nominees for Costumes and Makeup/Hairstyling are, by their nature, some of the most visually pleasing and impressive of the films nominated, but usually with not much else. For costumes there were two types of fashion: lavish or period-impressive, and overtly stylistic. For instance, Cyrano got nominated for lavish outfits overall, while Cruella got nominated with both its depiction of lavish fashion and its punk-rock aesthetic for the titular character. Cruella is my prediction for costumes. (By the way, Cruella was a bizarre watch. It felt like Disney’s safe, family-oriented version of an edgy cult appeal film.) For makeup, all the nominations were deserving, but two films in particular got buzz for makeup alone: House of Gucci and The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Jared Leto got attention for his transformation into Paolo Gucci, while Jessica Chastain’s Tammy Faye Bakker required so much makeup that the actress claims it caused permanent skin damage. I predict The Eyes of Tammy Faye will get the makeup award. For short films, my prediction is Bestia. If I’m correct, it will be notable in that it will be one of the few times a horror film has won an Oscar. For live-action, my pick is Ala Kachuu - Take and Run. For Best Documentary Short, I predict Three Songs for Benazir.
One of the tightest races this year is the Best Documentary Feature race. My current pick is Summer of Soul, easily one of the best films of the year, period. Its competition, however, is Flee, which has been racking up awards and could easily beat it. While Flee is also nominated for the Best International and Animated Feature awards, I don’t see it winning either. My prediction for Best International Feature is Drive My Car, which definitely deserves it. For Best Animated Feature, my prediction is The Mitchells vs. the Machines, a heartfelt, inventive, and extremely funny film that takes full advantage of the animated medium, if not pushing the medium entirely.
For original screenplay, my preferred pick would be The Worst Person in the World, but chances of that winning are low. Based on the competition (which inexplicably contains Don’t Look Up), I’d say Licorice Pizza has a far better chance. For the Best Adapted Screenplay award, many of the nominees have their own strengths, from CODA casting actual deaf actors where the film it’s based on didn’t, to Drive My Car turning a short story into a three-hour movie without going too far. I’d say The Power of the Dog is a likely win, though Drive My Car is a contender as well.
Now onto the actors. For Best Supporting Actor, my favorites this year included Troy Kotsur in CODA. The first deaf actor to be nominated, Kotsur gave a performance that was equal parts funny and heartwarming. The Power of the Dog actually has two nominations, but the one I felt was stronger was Kodi Smit-McPhee as Peter Gordon, who is also my prediction for the winner. For Best Supporting Actress, my pick is Ariana Debose’s performance as Anita in West Side Story. For actor in a leading role, my top pick is Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog. A stunning depiction of masculinity (and its fragility), Cumberbatch plays the part with a subtlety that gave me such an imposing feeling of power that I got a sense of dread every time he appeared on screen.
As I said in my last blog, I felt that Jessica Chastain shined as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, which I felt was one of 2021’s most underrated films. She is certainly a contender for the award for Best Actress in a Leading Role. However, she is not my pick. My prediction for the award, by a wide margin, is Kristen Stewart’s gut-wrenching performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Stewart took what could’ve been a standard period drama and turned it into a psychological horror film, giving a performance that got under my skin so much that it rendered the film often hard to watch. For me, what takes a performance to the next level isn’t just believing the actors are the characters, but when you feel the characters as well. It didn’t matter if I knew Diana was Stewart, what I was feeling came from the character, not just the actor. I really hope she wins.
My prediction for Best Director is Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. Campion is the first woman to be nominated twice for Best Director, and boy, did she earn the nomination this year. I will point out, however, that I loved Steven Spielberg’s direction on West Side Story, a film that I did not in any way predict would succeed, but succeed it did. The Power of the Dog is also my prediction for Best Picture. This was indeed among my favorite films of 2021 and definitely deserves the award. If you haven’t seen the film by now, I predict that now’s the time. It’s been racking up a mountain awards and I expect it to get more at the Oscars. Now, we just have to see who wins. I’ll try to give my report on the ceremony after it airs.
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